Model Public Policy (An assessment of the fiscal situation of an EU economy following the structure of the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council Fiscal Assessment Report.)

Paper, Order, or Assignment Requirements



Module Title: Public Policy

Written work

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The citation method to be used for this paper is Harvard style. 

Produce a 1,500 word analytical review essay on:

An assessment of the fiscal situation of an EU economy following the structure of the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council Fiscal Assessment Report. 

Maximum word count 1,500 words. 


Standard assessment regulations apply. You must reference your work as required by regulations and must include a bibliography.
Essay lecture

3. Recovery is gradually broadening

Want relative stability in these numbers around 0

4. H1 GDP growth boosted by contract manufacturing

When you look at different countries fiscal position have to take in that there has been a change in how GDP is calculated this year

5. Irish fiscal advisory council

These graphs tell you how much interest you would have to pay

What is the current fiscal position of Ireland? 
6. Deficit continues to fall

Everyone in the EU has a deficit besides Germany

4 components of European policy making that have to be complied with (assessed by the European semester):- 
• Stability and growth pack – golden rule (when you violate SGP you trigger the excessive deficit procedure – potential GDP is calculated if running below can be in nominal deficit)
• Fiscal compact
• 6 pact
• 2 pact

7. Crisis leaves legacy of high debt levels

60% is the rule however put the line at 100% here as once you get over 100% things get really complicated
If it’s really high you’re looking at debt overhang

In Britain would be looking at around 85% now

8. Uncertainty around growth prospects

Put in error of plus or minus 1%

9. Macro and fiscal improvements presented opportunity to move public finances decisively into safer territory

10. General government debt

11. Deficit sensitive to growth shocks

Take calculations of all your revenue figures – what is the situation if growth is plus or minus 0.5% 1.5%?
You consistently have the ability to talk about figure sensitivity 

From 2008 to 2014 had a drop in GDP growth 

12. Importance of Ireland’s new budgetary framework

Luxemburg is a large tax avoidance country 
14. Medium-term profiles in Budget 2015

15. Budget 2015 medium-term projections

3 big expenditures:-
• Education
• Health
• Social transfers
In Britain what would be these 3 areas expenditure trend
Go up in health and social transfers – more old people
Flat line in education

Germany education going down as less children so make up for rise in health and social transfers
In Ireland there’s been a baby boom so all areas are going to go up
In every country health is constantly going up
Also social transfers is a problem
NEETs – not in education, employment or training
In Britain NEETs are not a huge problem, however Spain, Italy and Greece this is a huge problem

16. Summary 

The report itself

Quarterly reports 
Irish ones considered to be very good 
Debt sustainability analysis – .xls available to download from IMF
For the most part a lot of this data will be available for you to fill in
Look at debt sustainability analysis from other countries
Revenue, structural balance and sources of increase in debt to GDP ratio are important areas to look at
Will have lots data on European countries 
Goes to regional level as well as country by country
Policy and surveillance
Databases and indicators

He encourages the use of graphs – make sure to explain them – make sure to reference them 

Lay it out like a report